2024 Real Estate: Which States Are Set to Win?
Dec 26, 2023
Merry Christmas!
As the final days of 2023 close in, there remains a variety of questions about what to expect in 2024.
Is the economy strong? Is there trouble around the corner? Will home prices rise even further? What will rates do? π€¨
While we don't know the answers to all these questions for sure, one thing is certain: different states will perform at different levels.
To illustrate that, let's continue our look at jobs across the U.S. and check on unemployment in each state.
Ranking The States on Initial Claims
When someone loses their job, they can file for unemployment.
This is known as an "initial claim" because it's their first time asking for government assistance due to job loss.
If they stay unemployed, they are recategorized into a "continuing claim."
Each Thursday, the stats are released for these two measures. This provides us an update on the status of unemployment in America. π
The numbers get reported nationally and are compared against expectations in the market to see if things are getting better or worse.
For example, last week it was announced that there were 205,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits. π§
You might think that's a lot (and it is), but the market expected 218,000 so it is considered a positive outcome. π¬
This means the job market is stronger than people thought which is usually good for stocks and causes interest rates to rise.
One thing that's even more valuable is to look at the initial claims by state to see which are stronger and which are struggling.
After adjusting for the state population and using a 3-week average to smooth things out, I ranked each state by unemployment claims. π€
Green states have fewer people filing for unemployment while red states are having more trouble.
π’ Here are the states with fewer people losing their jobs:
1. Virginia β€οΈ
2. Florida ποΈ
3. North Carolina π
4. New Hampshire π
5. Oklahoma πͺοΈ
π΄ And here are the bottom 5:
51. Montana ποΈ
50. Alaska βοΈ
49. Wisconsin π§
48. Minnesota π¦«
47. Oregon π¦
I'm willing to bet when we look back in a year, real estate performance might follow similar rankings.
Finding Opportunity
Let's start by saying this: there's opportunity in every state and every market.
You just have to find it. π§
If you're in a state that is near the top of the list, you'll have an easier time. π
This type of information helps add context to a topic usually viewed from a national level.
If you or your clients are nervous about taking action (buying a house, starting a business, etc.), this information could be a helpful way to calm the nerves. π
Things in your market could be much better than the news leads you to believe.
Let me know if you need any help and have a Happy New Year! See you in 2024! π₯³π
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
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