Florida Rents: How Have They Changed Since 2015?
Oct 27, 2024Happy Early Halloween!
It's been a fantastic week as I wrapped up my first MarketPulse 360 presentation with J. Riley and the crew.
Each time a create the presentation, I have extra slides I don't end up using in the final version. π¬
This week, let's take a look at one that didn't make the cut, but is still valuable to review.
How have rents changed in Florida?
Rent is a really important factor for any housing market.
Some Realtors view it as the competition, but it's just a tool in the housing tool belt. πͺ
What I've done with this chart is take all the metros in Florida that Zillow tracks since 2015 and visualized how rent has changed over time.
By the way, I think we can trust Zillow's rental data given the sheer number of rentals (on and off MLS) that end up there. π‘
I've indexed the rents which means they all start at 100 and it's measuring their change rather than looking at the $ rent so we get apples-to-apples.
If a market goes from 100 to 200, it's a 100% increase in the average rent there.
You'll see the name of the market and the average annual percent change to the right.
Sebastian is leading the pack with an annual growth rate of 9.7%. π€―
This is well above any other market in the state.
Looking at the relocation stats for the market, it appears that people in South Florida are moving slightly North (likely to find housing affordability) and it's driving up rents. π¦
26% of all people on Realtor.com viewing real estate in Sebastian were from Miami last quarter.
Sebastian is also a small market - population of ~27,000 as of 2023.
You can get bigger % growth when markets aren't large to begin with which is a good principle to keep in mind. β
Coming in next to last is Jacksonville at 5.8% average annual growth.
Our growth has been relatively low compared to other places in Florida.
A big part of this is we never became a "hot" market like Tampa and Miami. π₯
Also, we've added a significant number of apartments over the years which has kept supply higher and price increases lower.
While it may be one of the lower numbers in the state, it's a healthy growth rate if you're a rental investor. π€
In fact, single family rentals have experienced an even higher growth rate as we have a shortage in rentals of that property type.
Finding Opportunity
Stats like these speak to how the affordability in a market is changing as well as the potential from an investors' point-of-view.
Buyer Affordability
While buying a house has increased in cost, it's important to recognize that renting expenses have gone up too. π²
Sometimes this drives people to move out of the state if they can't afford to live here anymore.
The rest of the time it's a good reason to continue to help people understand what it looks like to buy a house knowing rents are just going up.
Focus on helping people with:
- the common misconceptions about buying a home.
- first time buyer programs that are available
- example scenarios so people can see the numbers
- the big picture over the next 5 years between buying a renting
- plans people can follow to save for the purchase
- ways to learn about and improve credit
- and so on..
There's plenty of people who still don't know about the many things you assume are common knowledge. π
Investors
On the other side of the coin, these are some healthy returns for people looking to invest in real estate.
First, this chart highlights that you really couldn't miss regardless of which market you picked to invest in. π―
The average rent growth in Florida was 7.1% a year!
Also, rent almost never goes down. π
You can see the steady path rents were on prior to 2020 and after the big jump up during the pandemic era, rents have taken a breather and you can expect the moderate levels of growth we had pre-pandemic.
Single family homes are still experiencing rent growth which doesn't show up in the chart.
And this is on top of the average price growth of ~9% a year investors and homeowners have enjoyed in the Sunshine State since 2015. πͺ
Lastly, some of these smaller markets with higher growth rates could be emerging markets worth exploring further.
The growth in Miami, Tampa, and Orlando is impressive, but I expect the areas around these metros to experience growth given their relative affordability and growing interest from people relocating to the area.
No matter how you cut it, there's opportunity everywhere.
Use the stats to make the most of it! π
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
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