Hurricane Risks: Where and when do hurricanes impact Florida?
Oct 13, 2024
So often you'll hear people say "I feel like.." and then provide some statement.
For example, "I feel like Tampa is always getting hit by hurricanes. π΅π«
The problem with this is our memories aren't perfect and things that happen more recently can stick out to us compared to the true history.
This is called recency bias.
In our case, there will be a lot of people who conclude that the West coast of Florida is more prone to hurricanes after Helene and Milton..
But is it? π€
Finding Reality
As you can see above, the areas in red (panhandle and South Florida) have historically experienced a higher number of hurricane impacts.
The West and Northeast coasts (blue counties) are far less frequently hit by hurricanes.
And this data goes back to 1900, so we have a long timeframe we're considering.
It turns out that hurricanes Helene and Milton were rare given where they made landfall. π²
And what about hurricane season? When should we get prepared for storms to form each year?
If you're not paying close attention or haven't lived in Florida for long, you might not know when to expect hurricanes.
The graphic above shows that tropical storms start popping up as early as May, but the real risk for hurricanes comes between August and October. πͺοΈ
Finding Opportunity
One of my guiding principles is to focus on the probable. π‘
This doesn't mean we should ignore the unlikely, but we can't get caught up basing our lives on "what ifs."
Playing what if too often can be paralyzing and lead to unnecessary worry.
Instead, we are better served determining what's most likely to happen and using that to manage our expectations. π
These graphics have huge relevance for people thinking about relocating to or within Florida.
There are a lot of people retiring or relocating to the state for work/retirement and this data can help in a few ways:
- ποΈ It gives you a schedule so that you can do some prepping before everyone else (May/June/July).
- πΊοΈ It helps those relocating to the state with flexibility pick an area with lower risk of hurricanes.
- π It saves people from moving away from an area of lower risk to an area of higher risk just because of the recent storms.
- π And overall, it can help manage expectations for anyone in the state about the risk based on the area they live.
Using data like this helps us make more effective decisions.
It doesn't mean we can predict the future, but we'll be a lot more accurate in our thinking about what to expect. π
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
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