The risk of national stats. 😨 

Lately, major headlines have been centered on the large drop in consumer sentiment.

In other words, people aren't feeling as confident about the economy, their finances, and how things are generally going.

This matters a lot because consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of our economy (GDP).

If consumers get scared, they hold back on purchases and that slows the economy down - leading to a recession.

Obviously, this applies to big ticket items like real estate, too.

If people are feeling pessimistic about today/the future, it's easy for them to decide to hold off on the move to see if things get better.

And so naturally real estate agents and financial professionals can feel a bit nervous about the future given these scary headlines.

But how accurate is the story, reallly?

National numbers can easily mislead you. 😩

When most media outlets publish an article related to the economy or real estate, they're usually going to reference national averages.

This is because the story can then apply to everyone and he audience is much larger for the story - which is good for higher views and ad revenue.

The problem with national numbers is they include everyone, but are usually not relevant to anyone at a local level.

Let's circle back to consumer confidence and look at the data:

The blue line is the national consumer confidence number and the orange line is consumer confidence just for Florida.

Nationally, people were feeling more confident to start 2024 and then turned more pessimistic when they remembered it was an election year.

The national mood improved in the second half of the year and has fallen significantly in the first two months of 2025.

But what if we zoom in on just Florida consumers?

Sentiment in Florida improved throughout all of 2024 and remains elevated in 2025.

It's a totally different story in the Sunshine State - nearly 30% higher!

Now, think of the implications of this?

If you're just reading the national headlines, you would feel worry, doubt, and fear about your prospects for 2025.

It'd be easy to get caught up in the headlines and excuse yourself from reaching out to your database to help them with real estate.

But if you know the more local stats, you'd know people in Florida are drastically more optimistic about their current situation than the rest of the country.

Suddenly, you'd be more optimistic about taking with people and understand that the local economy in Florida isn't the same as the national average.

Want to win? Go local. 📍

The answer is obvious, but not always easy.

We need to focus on getting the data that best reflects our local market whenever possible.

This helps us maintain an accurate picture of reality where it matters most: our neighborhood.

The main challenge is that the data isn't always available - especially if you're in a smaller market.

To help, here's how information is usually organized for economic reports:

• National - first updated and widely available, but rarely accurate to your market
• Region - a group of states in an area (i.e. Southeast) and better, but can still be very different from your local market
• State - most available "local" level and decently accurate compared to the previous two options
• Metro - usually a delayed release (weeks/months) vs. national/regional/state, but worth the wait
• County - many times this is released along with Metro stats and make for greater insight
• City - now we're getting to the nitty gritty; if you're in a top 20 largest city you'll get this info more easily
• Zip/Neighborhood - typically only published related to real estate stats 

💡 Bottom line: the real estate agents who are most in-tune with the local market are going to find the greatest success moving forward.

Consumers will easily be confused and concerned by national headlines and it is our job to make sure they understand the dynamics of the local market and how they differ. 

Now, this doesn't mean the national average is completely useless.

They serve as a measuring stick for our local markets to so we have context.

Is the local market is outperforming, underperforming, or neutral compared to the country?

The next time you read a headline that causes you to feel concerned, step back and consider that your local market could be completely different. Then go find the truth! 

And if you need help along the way, I'm here. 🚀

Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder