Real Estate Madness: New Year, Lower Rates
Jan 07, 2024
January 1st is a magical time.
People set goals, there's a sense of possibility, we've got a clean slate, and, most importantly, people are ready to take action. πβοΈ
With real estate, there's typically a huge churn in the market at the start of the year.
For example, 2,000+ properties rotated in and out of Northeast Florida this week. ποΈ
Roughly 900 new listings came on the market, while 1,100 expired and are gone.
Further, another ~1,200 properties executed a price change that knocked off an average of $22,185 (5.5%). π
That's a lot of action!
10 Weeks In A Row of Rate Declines
Arguably, the most important news for buyers, sellers, and you is that mortgage rates have dropped for 10 straight weeks.
After peaking around 8% back in October, we've come down to the mid 6's. π₯³
My mortgage friends at Bank of England tell me that with minimal discount points, clients are easily reaching 5.5% on FHA & VA loans right now.
This is the oil the market needed to loosen up and start to move. βοΈ
Finding Opportunity
Here's my playbook to start the year:
- π Rates won't decline indefinitely. In fact, the streak is over as rates increased slightly this week. I'd consider this a limited-time offer and those who act will get to take advantage of the sale. And people love sales..
- πͺ Savvy agents know we're at the magic number. Zillow and John Burns Real Estate Consulting both expect 5% to 5.5% to be the interest rate range that gets sellers moving. With a discount point or two, we're there. Are you proactively preparing estimates for your potential sellers so they can see the cost to swap houses?
- πͺ The window of opportunity is now until Fall. Between the new year, lower rates, and seasonal trends there should be a trifecta of opportunity in the market. I say until Fall because we normally see a drop-off in activity then plus the election cycle will be on turbo, potentially souring the real estate enthusiasm.
I'll be presenting my review of 2023 and forecast for 2024 over the next few weeks and I think this market could stack up to the frenzy of 2021.
Focus on keeping your feet moving. Show up every day. Answer your phone. And mentally prepare for one wild ride. π’
It's time - let's go! π
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
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