Retiree Boom: A Positive Trend for Florida's Real Estate Market
Nov 03, 2024
One of the biggest trends to watch related to real estate is the number of retirees moving to the sunshine state.
An estimated 30.4 million baby boomers are turning 65 over the next 4 years. 🤯
Even if we assume just a small slice of that group actually retires and relocates, it's plausible that Florida could continue to see a home buyer boost of 50-100k a year.
States getting a retirement boost
According to a study by SmartAsset, 171,343 retirees (people over 65) moved to the Sunshine state and 94,053 moved out.
This leaves us with a net gain of 77,290. 👍
Unfortunately, Census stats run a year or two behind.
For reference, this study was conducted in 2024 using data from 2022.
We certainly know relocation to Florida was huge from 2020-2023 and we'll have to see if the trend continued in 2024
That said, let's go a little deeper..
Cities getting a retirement boost
Next, let's look at which cities are getting a boost.
Above, I've filtered the results to show just Florida cities.
It doesn't show were all 77,000 people went, but it gives us an idea of which areas grew and which areas didn't.
The Tampa area lead the state with St. Pete and Clearwater ranking 4 and 10 nationally (and Tampa proper neutral at 106). ⛵️
Jacksonville came in at 29th in the U.S. with a net gain of 637 people.
One point to note is that the study doesn't call out several retiree hot spots: The Villages, Naples, & Punta Gorda.
They likley account for the rest of that 77,000.
Finding Opportunity
I was asked at a recent presentation how Jacksonville's retiree housing supply looks.
Now, retirees can buy any property they'd like, but there's a special class of properties built specifically for older people worth examining.
In case you don't know, this refers to 55+ communities ("senior" housing that is age restricted to those 55 years or older).
In other places, like South Florida, they're referred to as HOPA (housing for older people).
I pulled the stats to show where the active 55+ supply is around Jacksonville, the median price over time, and how many properties are typically for sale:
It is a little surprising to know we generally only have between 100-300 properties for sale in this category in a metro of 1.7 million.
That feels like a small number. 🤷♂️
Also, most of the inventory is in St. Johns county.
Overall, a couple specific opportunities related to all this information stand out to me:
- If an area would like to capitalize on the retirement wave, it would make sense to develop properties catering to those individuals. The Villages is a prime example and population there has grown from 45,000 in 2011 to 85,000 in 2024.
- If you're looking to add to your real estate business, you might consider specializing in helping retirees. There's a whole host of challenges this segment faces and gaining unique expertise in solving them could get your business into a growing segment of the market. 💡
Lastly, this is a prime example of how you can use market data to plan and grow your business.
Instead of throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks, consider going into 2025 with an informed strategy that's built on fundamental trends that can carry you to growth in the coming years. 🚀
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
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