How you think is more important that what you know. 🧠

Smarts completely go out the door when emotions enter the room.

A great example of this is when I read an emotionally-charged headline - usually about real estate, the stock market, or our economy crashing.

Survival mode kicks in and I get this immediate gut reaction that I need to sell everything and run for the hills.

You can probably think of a million times when you've acted on emotion instead of logic and regretted it. 🤦‍♀️

Wise move? Usually not.

Because we all have a tendency to be lead by our hearts, we must train our minds to be strong.

One way to do this is to establish guiding principles that are easy to remember and can point us In the right direction when things get tough. 💡

We want to create an autopilot system that leads us to good decisions.

Let me introduce you to one of the 5 guiding principles I adopted with my coaching members this week:

Focus on the Probable

Playing "what if" can be good or bad.

To clarify, that's the mental game where we keep saying "what if this happened...or what if that happened..."

And this can be done both positively and negatively. ☯️

Now, don't get me wrong - it's important to dream about what your life could be like.

I love thinking about what could go right.

But, you get into trouble continually assuming every idea will be a home run.

This can cause us to take on too much risk and is where people unknowingly turn into gamblers and speculators (cough crypto cough cough). 🎰

Think of all the "sure things" that get thrown around online where you could get rich quick.

Spoiler alert: it's a trap. 🪤

On the other end of the spectrum, obsessing over all the ways something could go wrong isn't a healthy exercise either.

And this side of the coin is probably more of an issue for you and your clients.

We have an important decision to make (ex. should we buy a house?) and suddenly an idea pops in our head: "what if X happens...what if Y happens.." 

And down the slippery slope we go. 😵‍💫

We want to be aware of the risks and possible ways we could lose, but we must maintain a sense of how likely those things are to happen.

Finding Opportunity

What we should spend our time focusing on is what's most likely to happen.

If we get that right, our bets on the future are likely to hit.

So how do we do this?

Look at history and find patterns. 👀

This quote sums it up nicely:

"The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes." - Mark Twain

The past won't repeat in exactly the same way, but humans are relatively predictable and patterns tend to repeat in similar, but different ways.

Here's another take on the topic:

Does that resonate with you? Do you agree?

Bringing this back to real estate, all this means getting data on the topic to see what has happened over time so we can have context. 📊

Look at the charts and see if you can spot any patterns.

If you have years of data, look at averages to inform your opinion.

Things go above and below the average line all the time. 

However, it's reasonable to expect higher odds that the future will be towards the long-term average (see reversion to the mean). 😲

It's another reason I don't expect lower rates in our future.

The long-term average is 7.75%. 

We've been below that mark for over 20 years..🤯

Given all this, I recommend that before we draw conclusions about what will happen, we ask ourselves: what's the most likely outcome?

Consider what has happened in the past, on average, for a good starting point.

I'll be talking about this more specifically at my upcoming MarketPulse 360. 

And if your brokerage didn't book me to come in this quarter, you have a chance to come see the presentation live at 9AM on May 8th at the UNF arena (free to you thanks to some great partners). 

Reply back if you'd like to secure your spot for the presentation and I'll get you on the list.

Have an awesome week and go find some opportunities! 🚀

Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder

Also, are you a real estate agent and looking to grow your business using information like this? 

Here's 3 ways to dive deeper:

1. 🎯 Market Insiders Coaching Membership: Join an exclusive group of Realtors focused on becoming experts in our local Jacksonville market. This membership gives you access to monthly live coaching from yours truly, a member-only community for private updates and discussions, and additional resources to address clients questions and supercharge your business.
   
   Rated 9.65 out of 10 for value to their business by my members.
   
   
2. 👩‍💻 Digital Course: How to Use Market Stats in Your Business: Accelerate your business growth by learning how to use data. This course will help you more easily understand the market, improve your client presentations, and increase your conversion rate with clients. No finance degree required as I lay everything out in very simple terms.
   
   Rated 9.84 out of 10 for value to their business by 100+ Realtors.
   
   
3. 📊 Schedule a live presentation: Want to learn in person? I offer the MarketPulse 360 presentation that connects all the dots (national to local) so you get a comprehensive breakdown of today's market. It's 2 hours of beautiful charts designed to give you all the major trends you need to know about and address the most common questions in the market. You'll walk out feeling more confident, with resources to use in your business, and a level above the rest of the Realtors who are wandering around blindly.
   
   Rated 9.74 out of 10 for value to their business by 600+ Realtors.