Jacksonville Monthly Market Update | April 2023
May 13, 2023
As we move further into Summer, history in Northeast Florida would have us expecting to see home prices increase along with a healthy dose of new listings to keep options available (this is called seasonality). What's interesting so far is we're starting to see prices increase, but are lagging on the homes available for sale.
Before we get too far into the update, we're making a few changes to our monthly market update. Instead of publishing the video overview publicly, we are going to be putting out a public version of our market dashboard. Click the images below to view the public version of our market dashboard and market trend report:
If you'd like a version without watermarking, join our coaching program (or waitlist as we only open enrollment a few times a year).
Now, let's continue diving into some thoughts on the market..
First, let's look closer at rates which act as the gas pedal for the real estate market (and economy). After a historic rise in 2022, rates peaked in October and have drifted lower since then. We have't seen an enormous decline like a lot of people were hoping for, but we've settled between 6% - 6.5% for the past few months.
This is creating some opportunity for buyers as rates are off highs, but more importantly, rates have stabilized and people are getting used to seeing 6%. The shock of continuously rising rates is gone and buyers that can afford it are still making moves.
Second, we have supply. Those traumatized by 2008 have been looking over their shoulder worried sick we'd see another home price collapse similar to the global financial crisis (GFC). Without a glut of inventory coming to the market, prices will stay consistent. Lower supply (as we're seeing) will cause prices to increase (as we are also seeing).
Lastly, what's going on with demand? There was a huge increase in closings last month and we're seeing closings drop off a little (-15%) this month. We can only speculate as to why, but I'd wager it has to do with limited inventory as we're hearing agents are receiving multiple offers for homes priced right and in good locations. With months of supply at 2.6, sellers are still in control and the market is getting throttled by a lack of homes for sale.
Days on market helps confirm that demand is strong as we see homes selling 36% more quickly than they were in February (only 2 months before these stats which is a crazy fast move).
It will be an interesting Summer in Jacksonville and we still believe there will be significant opportunity in the next few months for buyers to buy before prices continue to move higher in the coming years and for sellers to swap homes if rates get into the 5's.
Enjoy the cooler weather while we've got it on the First Coast and see you next month!
-Alex
